Three years ago, we were all talking about the blockchains, memecoins, and NFTs of a decentralized Web3. Two years ago, in the lingering homebound days of the pandemic, we dreamed of escaping to virtual worlds in the metaverse, a technological evolution Mark Zuckerberg was so sure of that he rebranded his empire in an intellectual property land grab on the word “meta” itself. 

Today, however, blockchains and the metaverse have mostly been overtaken in the hype cycle by generative AI. We still haven’t even seen the true potential of yesterday’s breakthroughs and already they are passé. Yet, Apple is pressing ahead with the launch of its first AR/VR product anyway, the Vision Pro, and it raises many questions.

Did Apple move too quickly? Too late? In a marketplace with the attention span of a gnat, where technology revolutions come faster and faster, do people even want AR and VR? Will Apple’s headset generate the same content-rich ecosystem its other industry-making launches, the iPhone and iPad, did? Or, and this is an incredible thing to ask about a new flagship Apple product category, will anyone even care?

As with all new technologies, what the Vision Pro badly needs is a killer app, a reason to want their “spatial computer” and something useful to do with it. Unfortunately, their bench is going to be missing some key players at launch. Three of the biggest content providers and platforms, YouTube, Spotify, and Netflix, have made the strategic decision not to offer dedicated apps for the Apple Vision Pro.

That decision surprised many. Historically, these platforms have had a symbiotic relationship with Apple's products. YouTube was one of the few apps preinstalled on the original iPad in 2010 and showcased the new device’s multimedia capabilities. Spotify, while often at odds with Apple over various issues, has been a staple in the music streaming experience for users across Apple's device ecosystem. Netflix, too, has been a part of content consumption habits of users on Apple devices.

It’s worth noting that Vision Pro does ship with Safari, and virtually all the major content providers offer a web app interface for their platforms, so users wanting to access YouTube, Spotify, and Netflix still have options.

Ultimately, whether Vision Pro fails or succeeds won’t hinge on the whims of Spotify, but the absence of major media companies does raise questions about the market appeal of the device and signals a shift in the power dynamics between Apple and these content providers. By choosing not to launch on the Vision Pro, these companies are challenging the historical narrative that Apple's new products will inevitably create their own market. They also potentially represent a not-so-subtle rebuke of Apple's market power and its fee structure for in-app purchases and subscriptions.

Apple’s not showing up completely without content partners, though, and announced that Disney+ would be available at launch. Disney will offer 3D versions of dozens of movies in its Disney+ app specifically for the Vision Pro headset, including four unique 'Environments' from their Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars films that blend virtual content with a user's physical space.

Apple and Disney have a relationship that dates back to 2006 when Steve Jobs (then CEO of both Apple and Pixar) sold Pixar to Disney, and have remained strong partners since then, so it’s not entirely surprising Disney was willing to give Vision Pro a fair shot. And, unlike in the case of Spotify and Apple Music, which compete directly, Apple TV and Disney+ aren’t replacements for each other.

In addition to Disney, Apple has secured partnerships with ESPN, the NBA, MLB, and the PGA Tour, and agreements with streaming services like Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+, Peacock, and others ensure that first adopters will have access to a fairly broad spectrum of movies, TV shows, and documentaries.

In contrast to Apple's partnership with Disney for content-rich and immersive experiences, Meta has pursued a different path in the VR landscape. Meta's focus has primarily been on gaming and social interactions through its Oculus headsets — which aligns better with their role as a social media network. Apple’s product seems intended to create a refuge from the real world, whereas Meta’s is designed for interacting with others in an interactive VR community.

That said, Meta also wants people using their device for consuming content, but they are facing some difficulties. Issues such as the lack of Widevine L1 certification (a Digital Rights Management system to prevent copyright infringement and piracy) have hampered the development of a robust movie streaming ecosystem on platforms like the Oculus Quest. 

The launch of the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010 led to totally new and massive channels for content creators and brands that fundamentally changed how we communicate, consume media, and use applications. They both set new standards in user experiences while creating vast ecosystems of apps and services. When reflecting on whether the Vision Pro can replicate that level of impact, it frankly feels like a long shot at the outset.

And who even is the typical customer for a $3,500 face computer? One would assume business users, pro designers, and others with corporate budgets to pay for their pricey gizmos, but while Apple mentions productivity and virtual collaboration as a feature, it gave more attention to watching spatial home movies and importing dinosaurs into your living room in its press materials. 

They didn’t come out and say it, but it felt like a consumer oriented product. Yet, at such a high price and with no real killer app at launch, suspicions seem founded that this is really Apple’s method of subsidizing the cost of breaking into the headset game with the devotion and dollars of first adopter brand loyalists. Early reviews are stellar (minus some comfort complaints), and the initial run of 180,000 units sold out immediately, so Apple might be onto something here, but this still feels like an experiment more than a product.

Granted, the iPad was also derided at launch as an oversized phone with no real use, and history proved the skeptics wrong. But the Vision Pro, while pioneering in its own right, enters a very different and much more competitive landscape. To have a similar transformative effect, it will need a lot more buy-in from Apple’s media partners — who aren’t on as friendly terms as they were back in the aughts. Cupertino has been counted out before, though, and always seems to land on its feet, so this one is far from over.

Take me home (tonight)